Weekly Brief
Damn the "economists". The physical science behind national prosperity is simple and its prognosis of the Philippines' prospects is grim.
In review and in prospect
Peter Wallace in his column today on the Inquirer, “2023?” suggests the all-too-familiar "hope” for the Philippine economy in his first piece of the year…
What will keep our economy growing are the two stalwarts of the past years: OFW remittances and the BPO industry. Both contribute around $30 billion to our economy. They are expected to continue modest growth, with some risk of losing our seafarers, if Mr. Marcos doesn’t get the educational system in order. He’ll need to exert some forceful leadership on this.
Disturbing, to say the least. We are headed into the middle part of the third decade of the 21st Century and all Wallace sees as the “two stalwarts” of the national economy are proceeds from overseas employment. Not seeing much potential from other industries, it seems Filipinos continue to be destined to be the world’s labour pool — contributing no more than labour-added-value in a region of producers. Most notably, Wallace’s prognosis for what has long been a traditional dynamo for sustained national development — manufacturing — is grim…
I’m of two minds about manufacturing. We’re just not competitive in the costs that matter. There may be niche ones where we’ve already proved successful such as electronics, where the Philippines has been quite successful with $58.31 billion in exports this year. These should be encouraged. Elsewhere, best to not waste time.
The costs that matter Wallace presumably refers to are energy inputs and logistics, both of which the Philippines suck at. Filipinos suffer one of the highest energy costs in the world and this country of 110 million have never quite come to terms with the archipelagic nature of its geography — preferring to regard both as excuses rather than challenges to overcome. In regarding labour export as a means to keep heads above water, Filipinos, as a people, have essentially pinned their hopes on generating wealth through mere employment. Interestingly, a generation of Filipinos have long recognised and articulated poetically in the vernacular; walang yumayaman sa pagiging empleyado (nobody finds wealth in employment).
If Filipinos are unwilling to overcome fundamental physical challenges to prosperity — powering production industries and transporting goods efficiently through its rough terrain what can they be truly proud of? Where there is no national achievement, there can only be a hollow nation. 110 million is a population that can only be sustained by imported energy. Sub-industrial standards of living will persist where access to goods and services are sub-standard. Prosperity can only “trickle down” to the majority of Filipinos if goods and services can be physically made available efficiently through land, sea, and air. Said transport requires energy. Building that transport infrastructure requires energy. All of these endeavours require materials. The Philippines imports most of these inputs and only has labour to export. The arithmetic isn’t very promising. The physical science behind what it takes for the Philippines to progress is simple, really.
Last week’s blog posts
Religion and politics: an alliance of money, influence, and power
January 9, 2023 by The Unpopular Opinion
"Despite the inviolable separation of Church and State stipulated in the 1987 Constitution where there will be no state religion, Filipino politicians continue to associate themselves with various religious entities and groups, most specially during elections."
How the Manila Air Traffic Control fiasco mirrors Filipino society
January 4, 2023 by benign0
"Flying is a lifestyle every Filipino feels entitled to — even calling it an 'essential' activity. Unfortunately, Filipinos lack the cultural character to support this luxury sustainably and, instead, rely on foreign capital, expertise, and technology..."
Marcuse’s Great Refusal must itself be Refused
January 2, 2023 by ChinoF
"This is happening on the Internet these days. Anyone saying that trans people are not following reality and that sex is biologically based and observed, not assigned, is considered 'right-wing' and racist and are sometimes banned or shut down."