In review and in prospect
The latest incident in the South China Sea involving the alleged blocking and water cannoning of a Philippine military vessel by a Chinese Coast Guard ship drew the expected condemnation from a who's who of “allies”. And, also as expected, the Philippines hangs on to assurance that, according to the US State Department statement on the matter, that its former colonial master “reaffirms an armed attack on Philippine public vessels, aircraft and armed forces – including those of its Coast Guard in the South China Sea – would invoke US mutual defence commitments under Article IV of the 1951 US Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty”.
What else, right? The Philippines does not really possess the means to project military power over territory it claims that is credible enough to at least deter bad behaviour on the part of the Chinese Coast Guard. Beyond issuance of these statements of condemnation of the “unlawful” and “unsafe” actions of the Chinese including those issued by the Philippine military and its Coast Guard, there seems to be no further action on the matter the Philippine government seems able to commit to.
One could argue that the normal response to all this would at least be some token sabre rattling. A show of force — even a token one — like sending some serious hardware for a few flybys over the area would have been nice. Then again, the Philippines had never been truly serious about building a serious enough capability to defend its own interests.
Last week's blog posts
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